Dog Fight - The Battle for Premier League Survival

Article by Robert Wake

A Look at the relegation candidates with bad news for Fulham, Palace and Sunderland.

As I write, there are realistically seven teams contesting the top four, 2 teams becalmed in mid-table, and no less than 11 scrapping to avoid the dreaded drop, and the financial implications that follow. A few short weeks ago it seemed that Palace and Sunderland were nailed on for the drop, and they remain in serious trouble, but the gap has closed, just six points separate the bottom 11, and teams who previously appeared safe have been dragged into the abyss.

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With 17 games to go, analysing every clubs strengths, weaknesses and remaining fixtures would keep me busy for days, so I shall try and summarise as best I can.

Of the 11, Palace have scored the fewest (13), Swansea have scored the most (26), Fulham have conceded the most (46), and Hull and Aston Villa have conceded the fewest (27). Not surprisingly, Fulham have the worst goal difference (-24) which is five worse than any of the others. I make this observation as goal difference is often significant, and with so many teams involved seems sure to be this season.

The Managers

There are three important factors when analysing relegation threatened teams; the manager, the home record and an ability to score goals. Four of the bottom five have changed their manager this season. While Gus Poyet and Tony Pulis appear to be an improvement on their predecessors, I am less convinced by Rene Meulensteen’s appointment at Fulham, and Malky Mackay’s departure from Cardiff says more about their egotistical owner than it does about Mackay’s ability. The appointment of Ole Gunnar Solskjaer is a gamble as he is totally unproven at this level. The same cannot be levelled at any of Sam Allardyce, Chris Hughton, Mark Hughes, Steve Bruce or Paul Lambert who all have experience of a relegation scrap, but will their clubs keep faith with them, particularly with the likes of Mackay and Steve Clarke potentially available. Clarke’s departure from West Brom was also very premature, and doubts remain as to whether Pepe Mel was Albion’s first choice as his replacement. Despite this, I believe The Baggies along with Swansea, Villa, Stoke and Hull will ultimately avoid the drop.

Home Form

So having trimmed eleven down to six, let’s analyse the other factors, notably home record and goal scoring potential. Of the remaining six, Fulham and Cardiff have played one more home game than the other four, with Fulham and Sunderland both losing seven of their home games to date. Sunderland’s total of seven home points is however the fewest of the current bottom six. Ironically, the Black Cats have beaten both Chelsea and Manchester United in the League Cup at the Stadium of Light in recent weeks, and need to find a way of transferring those results to their home Premiership form.

Goal Scoring Potential

Of the bottom six, Fulham have scored the most goals, and will be hoping that they can keep hold of Dimitar Berbatov and that Clint Dempsey rekindles the form he showed with them previously. West Ham have managed one fewer than The Cottagers, but have been without Andy Carroll for much of the season. If Carroll can find his goal touch that will help The Hammers enormously, as would the proposed transfer of Rickie Lambert from Southampton. Gary Hooper has notched 5 of Norwich’s 17 but Ricky Van Wolfswinkel has been a major disappointment for The Canaries. Frazier Campbell and Jordon Mutch have bagged eight of Cardiff’s 15 goals between them, but Peter Odemwingie has only scored once in the Premiership this season. Similarly, Jozy Altidore only has one for Sunderland, but at least they can also boast Steven Fletcher who will get his fair share in the second half of the season if the likes of Johnson and Giaccherini can provide the ammunition. Marouane Chamakh has 4 for Palace, but The Eagles have still only managed a meagre 13 to date.

Remaining Fixtures

Palace have played all the leading contenders away from home apart from Arsenal, but have to face both Manchester City and Liverpool at Selhurst Park in their last 3 fixtures before a potential winner takes all clash at Craven Cottage on the final day. Worryingly for Sunderland, they still have to visit Manchester City, Arsenal, Liverpool, Tottenham, Chelsea, Newcastle and Manchester United before the end of the season, but conversely have a relatively kind home programme. Cardiff have home games against most of their relegation rivals, but finish with trips to Sunderland and Newcastle before entertaining Chelsea on the last day. West Ham still have to visit Chelsea, Arsenal, Everton and, on the last day, Manchester City. The Hammers finish their home campaign at home to Tottenham. Fulham have still to visit Arsenal, Tottenham and both Manchester clubs and finish with a trip to Stoke and that game against Palace. Norwich have some winnable looking home matches, but their final four games see trips to Manchester United and Chelsea and home clashes with Liverpool and Arsenal.

Summary

While a lot of neutrals would not weep for Cardiff following the owner’s disgraceful treatment of Malky Mackay, I think The Bluebirds (who play in red) will survive. If big Sam can add Rickie Lambert to a fit again Andy Carroll, then West Ham should have enough about them to steer clear. Norwich will want to be clear before those tricky last four games, but should just about do enough. That leaves Sunderland, Fulham and Palace as my three for the drop. Much as I would love to see Poyet keep Sunderland up, their away fixtures lead me to think that their home form will not, on the evidence so far, be good enough. Tony Pulis has Palace playing with a great spirit, but I fear this alone will not be sufficient to keep them up. Fulham are an ageing team with plenty of thirty-something’s in their squad, and while experience can be a very useful commodity in a relegation scrap, I feel that The Cottagers have too many journeymen and may run out of steam in the decisive final weeks.

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